To be fair, it's likely going to take multiple years before a team truly knows for sure if their first-round pick will pan out or not. Sometimes, though, teams see a great return on their investment almost immediately, but sometimes, that can be misleading.
For example, Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud had one of the most efficient rookie seasons by a quarterback in the history of the NFL, and he's since regressed in 2024 and 2025. However, someone like Bo Nix, for example, played great as a rookie and helped lead his team into a progression in 2025.
It's not a perfect science, but for varying reasons, these three teams may come to regret their Round 1 selections in the 2026 NFL Draft.
These NFL teams might come to regret their Round 1 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft
12. Miami Dolphins - Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
Kadyn Proctor was a polarizing prospect during the NFL Draft cycle, primarily due to his playing weight. He's struggled to stay a solid weight as a tackle, and in the NFL, he might have to shed a few more pounds. The risk here is that getting too heavy would essentially slow him down and morph him into more of a guard.
However, the Dolphins seem to believe highly in Proctor, as they picked him with the 12th pick, dropping down one spot with the Cowboys. It's hard to imagine that the Dolphins plan on playing Proctor at guard, as if they wanted a guard, they simply could have taken Vega Ioane from Penn State, who went to Baltimore.
Seeing as the consensus on Proctor's position was not clear, the Dolphins took a giant risk here that might not pay off.
13. Los Angeles Rams - Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
Arguably the most shocking pick in Round 1, the Los Angeles Rams grabbed Ty Simpson at pick 13. So, the Rams used their two first-round picks on a Trent McDuffie trade and a Simpson selection. The Rams clearly want Simpson to replace Matthew Stafford at some point, but it doesn't seem like head coach Sean McVay was thrilled with the pick:
#Ramshouse HC Sean McVay On whether Ty Simpson was there first target or whether other players were in consideration? : “Let’s make one thing clear, this is Matthew's team. You get a chance to be able to address the backup quarterback. We've got Stetson. We've talked about the… pic.twitter.com/rjdBhJSFQD
— Nick Hamilton (@NickHamilton213) April 24, 2026
This does kind of feel like General Manager Les Snead was the one who pounded the table for Simpson, not McVay. Given that McVay is one of the smartest offensive minds of this generation, the Rams maybe should have gone in a different direction here.
As a prospect, Simpson has a limited ceiling and could max-out as a mid-level starter. He can do just about everything at the position, but it's all rather unspectacular.
18. Minnesota Vikings - Caleb Banks, DT, Florida
This was about as high as Caleb Banks could have possibly gone. Strapped with some injury concerns, Banks fell into Round 2 in certain mock drafts, so going inside the top-20 is a major gamble. Banks has all the talent in the world and some freakish measurables, but there's a reason why Banks was not a slam-dunk first-round pick.
It's easy for front offices to think the player they take is going to stay healthy and perform well, but Banks' foot injury concerns, especially given his size, are valid. This isn't about his talent, but more about a potential inability to get on the field.